I'm in Catalunya, just bought an apartment in Barcelona, and my girlfriend is just selling her apartment in a nearby town after dismissing the idea of converting it into a long-term rental, as a result of the new laws. All this stuff is very close to home.
The housing regulations seem to be making Barcelona a much more difficult market than Madrid (which is just crazy expensive). The question is whether the Generalitat/Ajuntament would admit that the unintended consequences seem to be greater than the benefits and consider walking some regulations back. Considering that the city just dropped its planned changes to the 30% social housing rule (because Junts wouldn't play) I have my doubts. You?
I don't know, no matter how many newsletters like your own point out the unintended consequences, I mostly walk around the city hearing from everyone how they support rent freezes. It does baffle me, but it feels like pretty much an ironclad law of politics that A., it's easier to add regulation than subtract it, and B., people will more or less always support what feels like the easy fix (such as ban Airbnb) rather than the more nuanced work of actually making housing easier to build.
Great write-up. Any thoughts on how the 'great wealth transfer' (supposedly) of boomer > millenial/gen X inheritances may shift the market, if at all? I think we could see a big shift in the UK (where I'm from) but I'm less convinced at the moment it will impact Spain in the same way, given the demand from all quarters to buy here. But that is entirely gut-based!
My intuition is that the wealth transfer will be different in Spain because Spanish families tend to have less wealth in general than those in the U.K. (ni hablar de los EEUU) and that wealth tends to be…real estate! Considering that even the lower-middle class in Spain often has a small beach apartment or a house in the family village, I suppose that means you'd see kids selling these apartments to be able to afford a primary residence. But I'm really not sure how much those houses are worth (a beach house in Málaga? Plenty. A small stone house in Castilla Profunda? A lot less.). In general I think your gut is right—it'll happen, but it'll have less profound effects than in other places.
The elephant in the room? Spanish salaries, especially for graduates who consider themselves lucky if they get paid 300 euros a month for work experience. House prices can continue to go up and everyone can keep on speculating on bricks and mortar, but I expect there will be a price adjustment sooner than you predict.
Spanish salaries truly are godawful and make it almost impossible to own a home unless you inherit it. Still, I think that prices can go rising for a good bit unless there's an economic slowdown (Trump tariffs, etc etc) or the ECB raises rates to deal with an inflation rise. If something like that happened I could totally see falling prices (but we'd have other problems then 😭). My hunch is that in the near term you'll see people moving to the outskirts of cities, or to small cities that are near big cities (like Valladolid) or to other cities with growing economies (Zaragoza). Sorta like what happened in France, where young people can't afford to live in Paris so they move to Bordeaux or Lyon.
This article shows how people are moving out of Barcelona to nearby towns:
I'm in Catalunya, just bought an apartment in Barcelona, and my girlfriend is just selling her apartment in a nearby town after dismissing the idea of converting it into a long-term rental, as a result of the new laws. All this stuff is very close to home.
The housing regulations seem to be making Barcelona a much more difficult market than Madrid (which is just crazy expensive). The question is whether the Generalitat/Ajuntament would admit that the unintended consequences seem to be greater than the benefits and consider walking some regulations back. Considering that the city just dropped its planned changes to the 30% social housing rule (because Junts wouldn't play) I have my doubts. You?
I don't know, no matter how many newsletters like your own point out the unintended consequences, I mostly walk around the city hearing from everyone how they support rent freezes. It does baffle me, but it feels like pretty much an ironclad law of politics that A., it's easier to add regulation than subtract it, and B., people will more or less always support what feels like the easy fix (such as ban Airbnb) rather than the more nuanced work of actually making housing easier to build.
Couldn't agree more.
Great write-up. Any thoughts on how the 'great wealth transfer' (supposedly) of boomer > millenial/gen X inheritances may shift the market, if at all? I think we could see a big shift in the UK (where I'm from) but I'm less convinced at the moment it will impact Spain in the same way, given the demand from all quarters to buy here. But that is entirely gut-based!
Thank you!
My intuition is that the wealth transfer will be different in Spain because Spanish families tend to have less wealth in general than those in the U.K. (ni hablar de los EEUU) and that wealth tends to be…real estate! Considering that even the lower-middle class in Spain often has a small beach apartment or a house in the family village, I suppose that means you'd see kids selling these apartments to be able to afford a primary residence. But I'm really not sure how much those houses are worth (a beach house in Málaga? Plenty. A small stone house in Castilla Profunda? A lot less.). In general I think your gut is right—it'll happen, but it'll have less profound effects than in other places.
The elephant in the room? Spanish salaries, especially for graduates who consider themselves lucky if they get paid 300 euros a month for work experience. House prices can continue to go up and everyone can keep on speculating on bricks and mortar, but I expect there will be a price adjustment sooner than you predict.
Spanish salaries truly are godawful and make it almost impossible to own a home unless you inherit it. Still, I think that prices can go rising for a good bit unless there's an economic slowdown (Trump tariffs, etc etc) or the ECB raises rates to deal with an inflation rise. If something like that happened I could totally see falling prices (but we'd have other problems then 😭). My hunch is that in the near term you'll see people moving to the outskirts of cities, or to small cities that are near big cities (like Valladolid) or to other cities with growing economies (Zaragoza). Sorta like what happened in France, where young people can't afford to live in Paris so they move to Bordeaux or Lyon.
This article shows how people are moving out of Barcelona to nearby towns:
https://www.elperiodico.com/es/barcelona/sabadell/20250713/planteamos-volver-barcelona-cinco-rostros-nuevo-exodo-segunda-corona-metropolitana-119364789
And this one shows people moving from Madrid to Valladolid:
https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/castilla-y-leon/2025-05-05/madrid-deja-escapar-poblacion-valladolid_4119023/
Whaddaya think?