đ€ Is Spain's economy strong or not?
Plus: A faster AVE may be near, the NFL comes to town, and the tragic death of Encarnita Polo.
Madrid | Issue #126
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All about the Benjamins
đ Spain is getting bigger in every possible way
The good numbers just keep coming. On Monday, it was Brusselsâ turn to play fairy godmother, bumping Spainâs 2025 growth forecast up to 2.9% (from 2.6%) and 2026 to 2.3% (from 2.0%). That makes Spain, once again, the fastest-growing âbigâ economy in the EU. Meanwhile, unemployment, inflation, and public debt are all supposed to drift down through 2027.
So⊠happy, happy, happy! Right?
Because we at The Bubble are all about public service (and also BelĂ©n Esteban), and because people can use numbers to lie (weâve seen it!), weâre going to unpack the hype. Whatâs really driving Spainâs growth? And how much of it do you actually feel in your walletâŠor your rent? Weâll also arm you with talking points to annoy your friends from France, Germany, and Italy at the next dinner. Youâre welcome.
That growth thing. According to the European Commission, Spain is âkilling itâ (technical term) in 2025 for a simple reason: domestic demand is on fire. While the rest of Europe is stressing about the Orange Manâs tariffs, Spain is doing something very old-school: working, earning, spending, and investing more. (It doesnât hurt that one of Spainâs biggest exports is tourism, and the đ hasnât figured out how to tariff Americans traveling abroad.) Hereâs Brusselsâ logic in three easy steps:
Household spending is back. Real incomes are finally rising faster than prices, inflation is sliding toward 2%, and employment keeps growing â making private consumption (i.e., people buying shit) the main engine again.
Investment is having a moment. Companies are pouring money into equipment and especially intangiblesâsoftware, data, R&Dâhelped by still-decent financing conditions and a fat pipeline of EU recovery funds. CaixaBank says investment in intangibles is 40% above 2019 levels.
Migration is turbocharging the labor market. Inward migration is expanding the labor force and making it easier for firms to grow without suffering labor shortages. Thatâs why Spain can add jobs and still have high unemployment.
Bonus: Youâre allowed to be insufferable about this. The euro area as a whole is forecast to grow 1.3% in 2025; Spain is at 2.9% and the other biggies? France: 0.7%. Germany: 0.2%. Italy: 0.4%. So if your friend in Paris complains about âlâEspagneâ, feel free to lol. Or, as the French would say, mdr (âmort de rireâ).
But, but, but⊠Hereâs the point when we get kinda aguafiestas (you know, a party pooper). Because macro data can glow while peopleâs daily lives sorta suck.
Population growth = more mouths, same pie (almost). Spain just hit a record 49.4 million residents, after adding roughly 475,000 people in the last year â almost all born abroad. Around 1 in 5 residents is now foreign-born, and the group is growing about 20 times faster than the Spanish-born population.
Back-of-the-envelope calculation. If GDP grows 2.9% and the population grows about 1% (as it has in the last 12 months), then GDP per capita is rising closer to 1.9%. Still good, just not âeconomic miracle, letâs all buy a second flat in ChamberĂâ good.
And more people means more competition. For housing, schools, and doctors. That may help explain why the macro charts say âboomâ while your rent says âouchâ.
Unemployment. Better, but still Europeâs paro king. The good news: Brussels thinks Spainâs unemployment rate will fall to 10.4% in 2025 and finally drop below 10% in 2026â27âthe best in over a decade. The bad news: The EU average is around 6%.
What does that mean? Spain is creating lots of jobs, but it will still have the highest unemployment rate in the EU through 2027. Being âtop of the classâ in growth and paro is pretty on-brand, no?
Warning đš: The growth isnât reaching everyone. Eurostat says 25.8% of people in Spain are at risk of poverty or social exclusion â one of the highest in the EU (behind Greece, Romania, and Bulgaria). And a new FOESSAâCĂĄritas report finds severe exclusion is 52% higher than before the 2008 crisis, with the housing crisis â especially brutal rents â now a leading cause. For many households, itâs not grocery prices that break them, itâs the landlord.
So, yeah, the numbers look great, but the distribution is ugly. Real wages are still 5% below pre-pandemic levels on average, and a big chunk of the income growth has come via pensions, benefits, and property income, not salaries. Thatâs why so many feel the recovery is something that happens to other people.
FinallyâŠâsince 2019â. The real measure of success is how much economies have grown since the pre-pandemic world. Because if you fell a lot during COVID and then came back fast (like Spain), maybe itâs no better than if you fell less and are growing slow now? On that measure, however, Spain seems to be winning too: CaixaBank estimates it has grown a cumulative 10% since 2019, versus 6.4% for the euro area.
The verdict. Yes, you can absolutely brag about Spainâs growth to your friends in Berlin, Milan, or Paris. Just maybe donât do it in front of your neighbours who are spending half their salary on a 50m2 flat.
More news below. đđ
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đŹ Five things to discuss at dinner parties
1. đ
Madrid-Barcelona in less than two hours?
Suck it, planes! Transport Minister Ăscar Puente dropped a major infrastructure bombshell on Monday: the MadridâBarcelona high-speed corridor is preparing to jump from 300 km/h to 350 km/h, a move that would slash travel times to just two hours and place Spain in extremely rare company (only China currently runs commercial trains at 350 km/h).
So what exactly is the proposal? A whole ecosystem upgrade.
First, boost the AVE to 350 km/h (217 mph). This requires new âaerotraviesasâ (aerodynamic sleepers) that cut air resistance by 21% and allow a 12% boost in top speed without modifying the current track. Fancy!
The MadridâBarcelona stretch moves 15 million passengers per year, and the train already dominates the plane on this route (85% train vs 15% air), making it the ideal candidate.
Second, a brand-new direct line from Lleida to Barcelona (no Tarragona detour). This is the big structural change. A new 135â150 km route entering Barcelona from the north (La Sagrera) would bypass the increasingly saturated Mediterranean Corridor.
The estimated cost is âŹ3 billion only for the Catalan stretch, but whoâs counting?
And third, tons of new stations! Puente announcedâŠ
A new northern access to Madrid. Right now, everything squeezes through Atocha in central Madrid. Puente wants an additional entrance from the northeast via ChamartĂn station, with a dedicated AVE station at Terminal 4 of Barajas Airport (woohoo!).
A new high-speed station in Parla. âWhere?â you ask. Well, a small town south of Madrid. This would let certain trains avoid entering central Madrid altogether, improving flow between AndalucĂa and Catalonia.
And last but not least, a high-speed station at BarcelonaâEl Prat Airport (woohoo again!)
Why is this such a big deal? Because Spain already has the largest high-speed rail network in Europe and the second biggest in the world after China.
Right now, the MAD-BCN AVE trip takes 2.5 hours at best. Reducing it to 1 hour and 59 minutes is both a logistical and psychological milestone.
Faster trips mean the same trains can make more journeys per day â more capacity without buying new fleets.
But, but, but⊠Donât book your ultra-fast-AVE tickets yet. The viability study goes out this week. No timelines have been given, but the ministry itself estimates nothing will begin before 2030, after key works on ChamartĂn, Atocha, and the MadridâSevilla AVE are completed. And, honestly, thatâll be three governments from now. So this may be more fantasy than reality.
Cue the PP. Madridâs regional government (of the opposition PP) was quick to pour cold water on Puenteâs announcement. Regional minister Miguel Ăngel GarcĂa MartĂn dismissed the plan as âanother fantasy,â and criticized the minister for offering âno timeline and no budget.â
Well, there is that. Looks like weâll just have to wait. â
2.đ The tragic death of Encarnita Polo
We understand if youâve never heard about early 70s flamenco-pop icon Encarnita Polo, but trust us, she was, as people say here, historia de España. Unfortunately, last Friday, Polo became the center of one of the most unsettling stories of the year.
The artist, known for being behind the immortal âPaco, Paco, Pacoâ, was apparently murdered while sleeping in a residence for the elderly in Ăvila. Itâs a crime as brutal as it is baffling â and has plunged the country into a mix of disbelief and sadness.
Who was Encarnita? If you grew up anywhere near Spanish radio, 1970s TV variety shows, or the nostalgia-filled universe of folclĂłricas, you know Encarnita Polo.
Born in Sevilla, she became a trailblazer of the copla yeyĂ©. That means she wore miniskirts, and had an attitude and a voice that blended tradition with a new pop spirit that was arriving â slowly â in the late Franco era.
Paco, Paco, Paco became part of Spainâs collective soundtrack and later resurfaced as an early viral phenomenon thanks to YouTube (yes, even before TikTok).
Polo was vibrant, charismatic, and surrounded by Spanish music legends like RocĂo DĂșrcal, Lola Flores, and Sara Montiel.
The crime. Early Friday morning, in the halls of the Decanos residence in Ăvila, a 66-year-old man allegedly entered Encarnitaâs room while she slept and strangled her. Caretakers rushed in after hearing noises, but she had already died.
The alleged attacker had arrived at the residence less than 48 hours earlier and was in the psychiatric wing, reportedly adjusting to medication.
Police sources say he may have been suffering from dementia and could have become âobsessedâ with her. There is no known relationship between them.
He is currently under police custody in the psychiatric unit of the Ăvila Hospital, awaiting stabilization before giving a statement. Why he targeted her is still a mystery.
The quiet tragedy of her later years. Encarnitaâs final chapter was already marked by hardship long before this horrible ending.
Polo lost her longtime Madrid home after a 22-year legal battle and was scammed during the Bankia âpreferentesâ scandal, losing âŹ70,000 (basically all her savings).
She was forced to pawn her jewelry to get by (her career stalled, and TV networks began calling her only to ask her to appear for free).
She battled breast cancer in 2021, and after decades in Madrid, she moved to Ăvila to be closer to her daughter and to afford a quieter, cheaper life.
Farewell in silence. Her daughter, Raquel Waitzman, issued a single statement announcing her motherâs death and requesting total privacy. No cameras, no celebrity procession, no spectacle. Just a small, private funeral under Ăvilaâs rain.
Itâs a deeply Spanish tragedy. A woman adored in her time, forgotten too soon, and forced into precarity despite her cultural legacy.
3. đ Yes, itâs called football, but you play it with your hands
The NFL came to Madrid on Sunday, and the whole thing felt like a mash-up between the Super Bowl (the vibe) and a game between two deeply mediocre 3-7 teams (the actual sport). But honestly? It didnât matter. The leagueâs push to âinternationalizeâ American football landed in Madrid with a bang.
The Miami Dolphins beat the Washington Commanders 16-13 with a sudden-death overtime field goal. A thriller on paper, a bit of a slog on grass (and watch this to see how they installed the grass â amazing). But this was never really about football. It was about the atmosphere, the numbers, and yes â the gossip.
The atmosphere. The NFL didnât just arrive â it colonized. The league planted a giant U.S. flag next to an equally giant Spanish one on the pitch where MbappĂ© usually slams in goals in Real Madridâs BernabĂ©u stadium. Karina Pasian belted the U.S. anthem and the InfanterĂa de Marina handled the Spanish one, like it was a Super Bowl pre-show.
Outside the stadium? Chaos and cheerleaders. Live bands, Dolphins dancers doing routines by the gates, flamenco (âïž), and kilometric lines caused by the NFLâs installation of security fencing that left one Madridista muttering: âDude, 80,000 people come here every weekend and itâs nothing like this.â
Inside, the Americans drank the BernabĂ©u dry. Beer and food ran out at several stands (âThey werenât ready for how much we consume,â explained Jack, an American fan, helpfully). A huge number wore jerseys â Dolphins, Commanders, and every random NFL franchise you can think of.
And when the game slowed, the videoboard became the main event. There were babies lifted like Simba, kiss cams, look-alikes, and the obligatory âSweet Carolineâ and âCountry Roadsâ sing-alongs. Daddy Yankee and Bizarrap popped in for a quick halftime set â a âmini-Super-Bowl,â as promised.
The numbers. They are big. 78,610 fans in attendance, with foreign visitors making up 42,000 of them â mostly from the U.S. and nearby Europe. And then thereâs the economic impact:
âŹ21 million spent in Madrid bars, restaurants, and shops.
âŹ15+ million in hotel bookings.
âŹ3.3 million in public money chipped in by Madrid governor Ayuso and Mayor Almeida as part of their âmake Madrid the center of the universeâ plan.
The NFL was so pleased that Roger Goodell basically told Real Madrid bossman Florentino PĂ©rez: âSee you next year.â The league is considering keeping Madrid on the calendar through 2028. (We donât believe this guy who says it wonât come back.)
The gossip. Bizarrap and Daddy Yankee reportedly werenât the first choice. Journo JosĂ© Antonio Ponseti told Carrusel Deportivo the NFL offered the halftime show to RosalĂa â who is in full promo mode with LUX and was literally in Madrid last week.
But when she told the NFL what she wanted for staging, they reportedly replied: âEso es nivel Super Bowl, no nivel partido en Madrid.â Translation: âToo big. Too expensive. This isnât the Super Bowl, Rosi.â
So she said no. But the league clearly has her in its sights. Super Bowl 2027, anyone?
4.đ„ Ayuso and Health Ministry battle over abortion
Let the pre-pre-election posturing begin! Health Minister MĂłnica GarcĂa announced Saturday that the government was filing a lawsuit against the Madrid regional government, led by Isabel DĂaz Ayuso of the center-right PP, after it missed the deadline to create a registry of doctors who conscientiously object to performing abortions, a requirement introduced in the 2023 reform of Spainâs reproductive rights law.
Evoking the big đ. GarcĂa said Ayuso was âobstructing womenâs rightsâ and behaving in a âTrumpianâ fashion by openly defying national law.
Outsourcing abortions. PM SĂĄnchez said on X that the government had instructed the State Attorneyâs Office to take the case to the courts and accused Ayuso of âturning an essential right into a businessâ, noting that her government currently outsources more than 99% of abortions to private clinics.
The center of the storm? A list. The law requires regions to create a registry of medical objectors, a confidential database meant to help hospitals plan staffing so that a doctorâs personal objection doesnât prevent women from getting legal abortions in the public system.
The registry does not penalize those on it, and is not accessible to the public.
But Ayuso insists it is a tool to âpersecuteâ conscientious doctors, a kind of blacklist disguised as public administration. She responded to SĂĄnchez (also on X) by saying that âonly a dictator can force people to do what they donât want to doâ.
Madrid is now the only region refusing to create it, after AragĂłn and the Balearic Islands (both PP-led regions that initially opposed the measure) agreed to comply with the law.
Ayuso has not dialled down her rhetoric. In a very tense exchange in early October, she told the Madrid parliament she would âneverâ create the list and, âGo somewhere else to get an abortion!â
All at once! She also accused the government of âpromotingâ abortion, lamented Spainâs number of annual terminations, invoked the Constitution, referenced the Qurâan, mentioned Hamas, and brought up the Civil War â all in one answer.
And she hasnât backed down since. The confrontation has also had an impact inside the PP, which has been thrown into (another) internal crisis over reproductive rights.
Party boss Alberto NĂșñez FeijĂło, whoâs more moderate than Ayuso, had quietly attempted to coordinate a unified position among PP-run regions, hoping to avoid exactly this kind of culture-war spectacle.
But the plan evaporated when Ayuso contradicted her own health minister â who just days earlier had said the region would comply â and declared open rebellion.
Fine, go for it. After a month of clear discomfort among other regional leaders who have complied with the law, the party ultimately folded. This week, the partyâs national leadership formally backed Ayusoâs decision to let the courts decide, effectively endorsing her refusal to apply the law.
Now the case moves to the courts, where judges will decide whether Madrid has the authority to defy the national law as passed by parliament.
Inside the PP. Ayuso has once again dragged the party into a fight it didnât want and forced FeijĂło to bend to her line. Whoâs going to be the candidate whenever elections are called? Just asking for a friendâŠ
5. đ§đ»âđ¶ So⊠weâve got good news, and bad news
Spain woke up Wednesday to one of those classic split-screen headlines. On the left, youâve got a cheerful graphic of a very old, very happy Spanish señora blowing out 84 candles. On the right, thereâs an empty maternity ward echoing like a cathedral on a Tuesday morning.
Because yes, we did it! For the first time ever, life expectancy in Spain has crossed the 84-year mark. According to new INE data, life expectancy at birth reached 84.01 years in 2024. Congratulations to all involved. Yes, you: the Mediterranean diet, the Spanish healthcare system, and whatever pharmaceutical magic is keeping half the countryâs abuelos doing the Camino.
Men now live to 81.38, women to 86.53, and the only real interruption to this decades-long climb was, well, you know⊠that year. (you know⊠that damn pandemic.)
But before we pop the cava, the bad news arrives with the punctuality of an AVE train of a few years ago (you know, before they started arriving late). Spain also hit a new historic low for births.
Just 318,005 babies were born in 2024. Thatâs the lowest number since INE started keeping records in 1941, and 0.8% fewer than the year before. Let that sink in: the lowest since 1941, just after the civil war, when the population was 26m, or barely half what it is now. If Spainâs fecundity was a stock, Wall Street would be screaming âSell!â
The average number of children per woman has now slipped to 1.1 â so far below replacement level that even the demographers have stopped pretending this is a âtrendâ and now call it what it is: a serious threat to the onesie industry.
And the kicker? Deaths still comfortably outnumber births. In 2024, there were 436,118 deaths and 318,005 births, leaving Spain with a âvegetative balanceâ (we know weâre weird, but we love that term) of â116,056.
That marks eight straight years of more funerals than baptisms. Or, an era in which Spainâs population has only grown thanks to immigration and the fact that our elderly simply refuse to die.
Final note. The share of babies born to mothers aged 40+ keeps rising (now 10.4%), which is great for empowering women to have children on their terms⊠but not great for, you know, having enough children to keep the pension system from crying itself to sleep.
đ Once again, please remember to share this newsletter with your friends on social media. The more we grow, the more information weâll be able to offer each week.
Weâll be back next week with more.
No. It could be? Yes.