The Lancet published a report forecasting the life expectancy around the world on Tuesday that shows that Argentina’s life expectancy will plateau at 77.5–80 years by 2040. The country currently has a life expectancy of 77.3 between both sexes. This is a relatively high figure, as the average global life expectancy is 72 years.
Nonetheless, there will be a large discrepancy between the most healthy countries and the least healthy, and Argentina will still be closer to the top.
For example, the people in Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to live less than 65 years, while those in Japan, Singapore, Spain. and Switzerland are expected to live over 85 years.
This number is consistent with the rest of South America and roughly equal to that of the US. Both Peru and Canada are projected to have the highest life expectancy in all of the Americas, with 82.5–85 years by 2040.
The authors used a novel method to gather these results, creating their own system that takes into account factors such as education, income and fertility rates. They developed a unique three–component model of case specific mortality between 1990 and 2016.
In light of a recent dire report by the UN on climate change, the Lancet study points to 250,000 deaths every year accredited to global warming. These deaths are expected to be a result of natural disasters and the diseases that arise from them. However, the authors specifically note that this number is too small to make a significant impact on the global life expectancy. In addition, the report projects a rise in obesity and that HIV/AIDS rates are going to increase by 120 percent, hindering the growing life expectancy.
Similarly to the world as whole, Argentina has its own dichotomy in health between its provinces. A child born in 2015 in Tierra del Fuego was expected to live for an average of 75.61 years, while a child born in Chaco was projected to live a whole four years less.
This dichotomy is shown in even sharper contrast by Dr. Nidia Lopez who has been working with the Wichi people in Chaco for 25 years and who confirmed that the life expectancy of the Wichi there is between 40 and 50 years.