Two and a half years after the previous attempt to legalize abortion fell short in the Senate, the rematch now awaits, with the pro-choice side of the aisle now somewhat more confident that a win is possible.
But a green victory is still far from a foregone conclusion. Pre-vote estimates like that of political scientist Andy Tow suggest things are currently tied, as the graphic below shows.
Details on who is expected to vote how can be found on the link, but many things are still up in the air. Former president Carlos Menem is currently counted as “undefined”, but his vote depends more on whether his health allows him to connect remotely to cast his vote than on anything else. If he’s there, that would mean another vote for the enemies of legalization, enough to avoid a Cristina Kirchner tie-breaker that would win it for the greens.
But much more could happen as well. Both the government and the opposition will be pulling strings until the last minute to try to change one or two votes. San Juan Senator Cristina López Valverde and Salta Senator Sergio Leavy, currently counted as negatives due to having voted “no” in 2018, were said to be in negotiations with the government to switch sides to a yes. And the same can be said, at least, of all the undecided. The winner will remain unknown until the early hours of Wednesday.