President Mauricio Macri’s administration is dotting the I’s crossing the T’s of the 2017 budget that it will send to Congress next week. And sources tell La Nación the government expects an average exchange rate of AR$18 per US dollar next year.
That figure isn’t really surprising considering the Central Bank’s survey of consultancies found that the median expectation for the exchange rate for December 2017 is AR$18.5 per US dollar.
Some do expect a higher number, including Citi, which has forecast AR$20-per-dollar exchange rate for 2017 and the Orlando Ferreres consultancy that said it expects an exchange rate of AR$19.98 per dollar.
The exchange rate has been relatively stable in recent weeks, staying at around the 15-peso mark. That, in turn, has led to concern that the peso may once again become overvalued.
Diego Dequino, the head of the Economic Investigations Institute (IIE) of the Córdoba Board of Trade said recently that since the December 2015 devaluation, the real exchange rate has lost almost 40 percent in value. That amounts to “a yellow light for the Argentine economy,” he said.